Why is the Belarusian ruble growing? Expert commentary. Whose ruble is stronger? Which ruble is more expensive, Russian or Belarusian?

How is the Belarusian ruble regaining its position? AiF asked to answer this question candidate economic sciences Elena SEMAK.

On exchange rate(i.e. the ratio of the price of the national currency to the foreign one, for example, the Belarusian ruble to the dollar) is influenced by the supply and demand for foreign currency. Dollars and euros are needed by enterprises that purchase goods for import, as well as by the population - for tourist trips abroad or for the purpose of savings. At the beginning of 2017, the volumes of foreign currency purchased by these two categories decreased.

According to the National Bank, in January of this year, business entities - residents of the Republic of Belarus, bought more currencies than they sold, the difference amounted to 13.1 million USD. This is much less than in January last year, when this excess was USD 198.2 million.

At the same time, our exporters increased their revenue. Compared to January 2016, the volume of foreign currency sales by Belarusian enterprises in the first month of 2017 increased by USD 262.7 million. According to the expert, this indicates a possible improvement in the state of Belarusian foreign trade.

Thus, the first factor that influenced the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble was an increase in supply and a decrease in demand for foreign currencies from business. It is also necessary to add: Belarusian enterprises prefer to buy currency from banks (on the over-the-counter market). On the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange (BCSE) they purchased only 14.3 million USD, while outside the exchange - 1,278.1 million USD. Namely, exchange rates are set on the exchange.

The second factor, according to the expert, was the high level of spending by the population during the holidays (dollars were exchanged for rubles, for which goods for the feast were then purchased), the third factor - low level income, which forces the population to spend foreign currency savings.

Another aspect is political: the sharp weakening of the European currency on the BVSE was largely due to the depreciation of the euro against the US dollar on the Forex market. This is due to fears that the post of President of France could be taken by the leader of the National Front, Marine Le Pen, who, if she wins, could withdraw the country from the euro zone and initiate the return of the franc as the national currency of France.

According to Elena Semak, we must not forget that at the same time the Russian ruble is strengthening.

The exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble is determined by the sum (basket) of 3 currencies: euro, dollar, Russian ruble. And the latter’s share in the basket is 50%. Most of our foreign trade is connected with Russia, and the Belarusian ruble is weakening in relation to the Russian ruble.

What's the forecast?

Forecasting further changes in the exchange rate is a very difficult matter. At the end of 2016, the majority of economists expected, at best, a gradual depreciation of the Belarusian ruble at the same rate as inflation. The further forecast for the development of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate depends on the success of our foreign trade, the growth or decline of household incomes and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates on world markets.

Resume

The following main factors had the greatest impact on the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble:

1. Increase supply of foreign currency in Belarus (due to various reasons: the success of Belarusian exporters, the still low level of income of the population (people are forced to spend foreign currency savings), etc.). When supply is higher than demand, the price of the product ( dollars and euros are also a kind of “commodity”. - Prim.) falls.
2. Decline demand for dollars and euros from business;
3. Seasonal factor (the population spends more foreign currency during the New Year holidays).

The trend towards devaluation of the Belarusian ruble continues.

In the first week of the new year, the Belarusian ruble fell for three consecutive sessions against the US dollar, euro and Russian ruble. Why and how long this will last, economist Boris Zheliba told Tomorrow of Your Country.

- If on the exchange the demand for a currency exceeds its supply, then the Belarusian ruble weakens,- says the expert. - But this ratio is influenced by many factors. There was some retreat from the weakening trend of the Belarusian ruble. Before the New Year, for some reason, it strengthened for several days. Apparently, the supply of currency on the market slightly exceeded demand.

The National Bank can intervene in this process by conducting currency interventions. If there is not enough currency, he throws it up for auction from gold and foreign exchange reserves. But the National Bank, if it throws in any volumes of currencies, is insignificant. However, one must keep in mind that the general trend towards devaluation of the Belarusian ruble continues. Creeping, slowly but surely.

This was shown by the first trading after the New Year. But the main thing is that there are no sharp fluctuations leading to a landslide devaluation, which is what all Belarusians are afraid of.

Who benefits from devaluation, even a creeping one?

- If the national currency weakens, this is beneficial for exporters and not beneficial for importers, since they have to buy the same dollars or euros at a higher rate. But since the devaluation is still gradual, its impact is not significant - the expert believes. - Naturally, ruble depositors and the National Bank’s agitation with calls to keep deposits in Belarusian rubles suffer from the weakening of the ruble, since the majority of the population (about three quarters), having gained bitter experience, prefers to keep savings in dollars or euros.

What will affect the behavior of the Belarusian ruble in the future?

- The main point is the balanced monetary policy of our National Bank,- says Boris Zheliba. - The money supply, although at a relatively slow pace, is growing. And the more rubles, the more expensive the dollar will be. This is an internal factor, but external factors also influence. The most important among them is the export of petroleum products. It accounts for about a third of the currency of all exports, and is influenced by world oil prices. They are now favorable, reaching their highest level in many years - up to $68 per barrel of Brent. This is beneficial primarily for Russia, but also for Belarus. But perhaps it’s for the best that the influence of this oil and gas factor is offset by other reasons, including how efficiently the national economy operates. But here Belarus and Russia have nothing special to boast about.

But the entire basket of currencies is becoming more expensive. Why?

- The Russian ruble is very susceptible to rising world prices for oil and gas. The higher they are, the more expensive the Russian ruble, - explains the economist. - This affects Russia to a greater extent than Belarus, since Russia is more susceptible to the oil curse, since it received all its excess income from oil exports. So far this remains the case.

As for the growth of the Russian ruble against the Belarusian ruble, Belarusian exports very much depend on Russian market. We talk a lot about the diversification of Belarusian exports and imports, but this is not happening. Hence the trend - if the Russian ruble is more dependent on oil and gas prices, then it will strengthen, including against the Belarusian ruble. In this regard, we are less dependent on external factors, which is why we are weakening towards Russia.

Citizens of Belarus are getting used to new banknotes and are losing the habit of being “millionaires”

Photo: Viktor Drachev/TASS

On July 1, 2016, denomination started in Belarus. The corresponding decree was signed by the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko on November 5, 2015. About how the Belarusian ruble began a new life without four zeros - in a special report from Banki.ru from Minsk.

Denomination in Belarus is proceeding quite calmly. Apparently, the preparation process, which officially began in the fall of 2015, is making itself felt. Then the journalists were shown the new money, they were even allowed to touch and photograph it. And banks were given recommendations on how to carry out denomination.

Just a few weeks after the announcement of the denomination, reports appeared in the media that some “enterprising citizens” went to pensioners living alone to exchange old money for “new” ones, but law enforcement agencies quickly explained to the population how to behave in this situation.

Perhaps the criminal aspect has become the only negative aspect in the process of “cutting off zeros” from the national currency in Belarus. On the night from June 30 to July 1, the Belarusian ruble lost four zeros and changed its encoding. Now its code is BYN, not BYR.

In preparation for the redenomination, the busiest period was June: banks were finalizing software, reconfigured equipment and trained cashiers.

• stock up on cash for the first two or three days;
• pay in advance for communication services and the Internet, make loan payments, make tax and other payments (the peak of utility bills in Belarus occurs on the 20-25th of the month, after which the databases are blocked).

Also, the National Bank and Belarusian banks explained that on the night of the redenomination:

• all cards issued by Belarusian banks (in all currencies) will stop working in all countries;
• operations in remote banking channels will be unavailable, ATMs, information kiosks and terminal equipment will freeze.

The cash at ATMs was quickly running out, but in general the banks were quite successful in issuing large quantity cash. True, there were some oddities - some withdrew all their savings from the cards. Yes, just in case.

On the night of the denomination, at 23:00 on June 30, banking life in Belarus stopped. ATMs, information kiosks, and remote banking systems stopped working. At this moment, hundreds of specialists in Belarusian banks were reconfiguring electronics.

By 10 a.m. on July 1, most ATMs of Belarusian banks were already fully operational. And they gave customers new paper money. With coins, everything is still much more complicated; ATMs are simply not configured to work with them. An entire generation has already grown up in Belarus that does not know what coins are; the last metal money disappeared from circulation with the collapse of the USSR. By the way, both the new Belarusian banknotes and the new Belarusian coins are very similar in design to the euro.

Certain issues have also arisen with remote banking systems. Some banks took a timeout to reconfigure.

Officially, the National Bank of Belarus allowed credit institutions not to work with clients on the day of denomination. However, already in the first hours of July 1, 24-hour exchange offices (in particular, at train stations) began issuing new money. Now collection vehicles are delivering new banknotes and coins to trade and service organizations throughout the country.

The excitement is observed only from young people and journalists who are hunting for new banknotes. As cashiers in brick-and-mortar and online stores admit, almost everyone still pays with old money. There were no unexpected incidents. It can be stated that preparations for the denomination took place at a fairly high level and Belarus is slowly switching to new means of payment.

By the way, the new banknotes are from 2009 (all these years they were kept in the depository of the National Bank of Belarus). These banknotes bear the signature of Pyotr Prokopovich, who left the post of head of the Belarusian regulator more than five years ago, in the spring of 2011. The psychological aspect of the denomination is also important - the residents of Belarus are accustomed to the fact that they are “millionaires”. Average salary in the country amounted to 6-7 million rubles (about 20 thousand Russian rubles). Now you will have to part with the status of “millionaires”. 1 million old rubles is 100 new ones. For 1 dollar they ask for 2 new Belarusian rubles, for 1 Russian ruble they give 3 new kopecks. But so far no one is complaining about it.

By the end of the year, price tags in Belarusian stores will be in both old and new money.

And the denomination will continue. Old rubles will officially circulate on par with new ones until December 31, 2016.

Composing music can be compared to painting a picture

Dmitry Kuznetsov welcomes you to the Dikiy.net label website!

Every person has a business that he likes or for which he is predisposed. I, Dmitry Kuznetsov, wish absolutely everyone to find their favorite activity and enjoy it all their lives. The pages of this site present materials from my musical project D.K.Y, released under the record label Dikiy.net.

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Vadim Iosub is a senior analyst at Alpari. Specialist in methods of analysis in financial markets and trust management of investment portfolios in the stock market. Since 1998 he has been working in the Forex market, since 2005 - in the Russian stock market.

Yesterday, the Belarusian currency crossed the 2.1 ruble mark against the dollar, and this became quite an important and, to say the least, a slightly alarming event for many. Let's figure out what's going on, whether there are reasons for concern, and what we can expect from quotes in the near future. To tell the truth, a real currency detective story has unfolded, which has no obvious outcome yet, but a competent economist is quite capable of identifying the main suspect.

In recent weeks I have had to answer the questions “What is happening to our currency?” not only from the Belarusians. Every day, Russians wonder what is happening with their ruble. They also call daily from Ukraine: “The hryvnia is falling - why?” They also write from Kazakhstan: “How long will our tenge become cheaper?” It is significant that this interests everyone at the same time, and we can immediately note that there is nothing surprising in what is happening with the Belarusian ruble (although there is one intrigue - but more on that a little later).

What is happening on the global currency arena, essentially, is this: the dollar is growing significantly against all currencies of countries that are commonly called “developing” or “emerging economies.”

We can look at the broader picture, covering the whole world, and then we will see that in the last week, collapses in the exchange rate of the national currency have been observed in Turkey, Argentina, India, Iran, and South Africa. Moreover, just yesterday or the day before yesterday, dollar rates in Iran and India set historical highs.

Taking into account today’s trading, since the beginning of the year, the dollar has added about 7% to the Belarusian ruble, but in Turkey and Argentina there were daily falls in the exchange rate of the national currency against the dollar, exceeding this nine-month figure. In addition, we note that the trend towards growth of the dollar against the hryvnia, tenge and Russian ruble is much more pronounced.

In essence, we are witnessing a global redistribution of investment. This is not unique phenomenon, it happened before and will definitely happen more than once in the future. Today, according to global investors, investments in developing countries have become more risky, at the same time, the benefits of investing in countries with developed economies have increased (in particular, this is due to the fact that the US Federal Reserve has raised and plans to further raise its rates) .

Investor money is flowing from developing countries to advanced economies. This process occurs as a result of a trigger, followed by an avalanche effect. The trigger was probably American economic sanctions against Russia and Turkey, increased duties on metals supplied from Turkey, and the threat of default in Argentina. In Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus there are no such specific reasons; we can say that we simply got caught up in the tangential distribution, with all the other developing countries “for company.”

Once again: this is a global process, we are not the main participant in it and, what is especially important, we are far from the main victim.

Can we say that Belarus can handle the blow well? Personally, I would be of the opinion that this could be said before August. At the end of summer, interesting changes began to occur in the country's foreign exchange market, to which most ordinary people would most likely not attach importance.

I propose to look not at the dynamics of the Belarusian ruble to dollar exchange rate, but at how our currency is changing in relation to the Russian ruble.

Since the beginning of this year, for seven and a half months in a row, the Belarusian ruble has generally strengthened, and the value of the currency basket has decreased. When during this period in Russia there were repeated large jumps in the exchange rate of the national currency against the dollar, the Belarusian ruble reacted in a standard way: the dollar grew against the Belarusian ruble, but at the same time the Russian currency became cheaper relative to ours.

This situation has changed since the end of August. For two weeks now, the Belarusian ruble has been depreciating simultaneously against the dollar, euro and Russian ruble. The value of the currency basket is rising, and our currency is weakening. It is important that in recent days the Russian ruble has been feeling very bad, but even in this situation it is growing relative to ours.

We come to the heart of the intrigue. Traditionally it is believed that recent years In our country, market exchange rate formation occurs: fluctuations in the value of the national currency depend on the relationship between supply and demand. In accordance with this, it can be assumed that around August 25, the demand for all major foreign currencies increased sharply in Belarus. And here it must be said that the entity that created this demand is not very clear; there is simply no reason for such interest. I very much doubt that this is the population or Belarusian enterprises.

But nothing happens on the foreign exchange market just like that. Therefore, we can assume that our National Bank is involved in what is happening, which, when buying or selling currency, has the right not to publish information about the transactions carried out. We will be able to find out indirectly that they were carried out later, noting, for example, that the country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves have increased.

What's wrong with the state buying foreign currency and replenishing gold and foreign exchange reserves? What is happening today with the Belarusian ruble and how it relates to the currency basket resembles a sharp change in trend. Our National Bank since the beginning of 2015 in speeches and documents declaring the main directions monetary policy for a year, states that it does not interfere in exchange rate formation and does not determine trends, but is only ready to smooth out sharp fluctuations in exchange rates during the day.

Meanwhile, recently, when the Belarusian ruble was strengthening against the Russian ruble, many representatives of domestic industry and agriculture and even the relevant ministries, right up to their superiors, complained that this state of affairs interferes with trade with Russia and makes our products less competitive in the market of our main economic partner. They asked to influence the situation, to intervene.

Literally at the end of August, one of the “tops” of the National Bank once again said: we will not artificially devalue the Belarusian ruble. Moreover, he explained why in a well-reasoned and detailed manner. Obviously, this will lead to a worsening of the economic situation, and the dollar may rise even more. The state's external debt is predominantly in dollars, many enterprises have dollar loans - it turns out that in the end no one will benefit from the artificial devaluation. An increase in the dollar of just 1% leads to the fact that enterprises and the state will have to spend a total of 560 million rubles more on debt servicing!

Unfortunately, judging by indirect signs, over the past two weeks the National Bank has begun to gradually artificially weaken the Belarusian ruble against the Russian ruble. Apparently, this could be the result of pressure from the industrial-agrarian lobby in the government. I repeat once again: no one caught anyone by the hand, and all this is nothing more than my assumptions. I'd be happy to be wrong.

Now about the conclusions. It is almost certain that in the near future the dollar and euro will rise in relation to our national currency, but this will happen moderately, within reasonable limits that will not cause panic. And it is important to understand that this is not a unique problem in our country, but a global trend. It is difficult to predict what will happen to the Russian ruble. I really want to hope that we will not witness how they again tried to steer the foreign exchange market manually. All previous attempts to do this in Belarus ended in failure.

If the impact on the Russian ruble exchange rate was a one-time event that will end soon, nothing bad will happen. But the very possibility that this has become possible again is alarming.

I would note that, despite the weakening of the domestic currency, deposits in it still remain quite profitable. At the same time, I would recommend getting rid of savings in the Russian ruble, because in the coming months, judging by statements by representatives of the US government, a whole cascade of sanctions shocks may await him.